黄河下游宽滩区洪涝灾害物理暴露量研究

Exposure of GDP and Population Under the Scenarios of Historical Extreme Floods in the Wide Floodplain of the Lower Yellow River

利用ArcGIS空间分析技术,根据已经构建的黄河下游宽滩区洪涝灾害数据库,结合实体模型试验成果,分析黄河下游宽滩区无、有防护堤两种运用模式下的人口、GDP、粮食产量和固定资产等物理暴露量。结果表明:①未调控“58·7”洪水情景下无、有防护堤模式的淹没面积分别为841.88、667.54 km^2;调控“58·7”洪水情景下无、有防护堤模式的淹没面积分别为64.46、69.78 km^2。调控“58·7”洪水情景无防护堤模式下淹没范围集中于高村—孙口河段上半部习城滩到梁集滩,调控“58·7”洪水情景防护堤模式下淹没范围集中于高村—孙口河段下半部蔡楼滩到赵桥滩。②以2010年为基础年,未调控“58·7”洪水无防护堤模式和调控“58·7”洪水防护堤模式两种情景下,人口暴露量分别为55.65万人、6.44万人,GDP暴露量分别为29.31亿元、4.51亿元。总体来看,黄河下游宽滩区遭受大洪水时洪涝灾害的防御效果,调控洪水情景优于未调控洪水,有防护堤模式优于无防护堤模式。

Based on ArcGIS spatial analysis technology,this paperbuilt a flood disaster database of the wide floodplain of the Lower Yellow River.According to the results of physical models,the physical exposure of population,GDP,grain yield and fixed assets in this area for 2010 years had been analyzed under the different application modes of the wide floodplain of the Lower Yellow River.The results show that a)the submerged area of no protective embankment mode is 841.88 km^2 without regulating the“July 1958”flood scenario and the submerged area of protective embankment mode is 667.54 km^2.The submerged area of no protective embankment and protective embankment mode un⁃der the regulating“July 1958”flood scenario is 64.46 km^2 and 69.78 km^2 respectively.In no protective embankment mode with regulating“July 1958”flood scenario,inundation scope concentrated in the area from Xicheng floodplain to Liangji floodplain on the upper part of Gao⁃cun⁃Sunkou section,which it is concentrated in the area from Cailou floodplain to Zhaoqiao floodplain on the lower part of Gaocun⁃Sunkou section and;b)if the flood disaster occurs in 2010,under the“July 1958”flood scenario,the population exposure without protective em⁃bankment mode is 556,500 and the GDP exposure is 2.931 billion Yuan.Regulation of the“July 1958”flood scenario,protective embank⁃ment model population exposure is 64,400 and GDP exposure is 451 million Yuan.From the view of disaster prevention effect,the control flood scenario is better than the unregulated flood scenario and the model with protective embankment is better than the non⁃protective em⁃bankment model.