城市道路平面信号交叉口交通事故成因分析

Analysis of the Causes of Traffic Crashes at Urban At-Grade Signalized Intersections

为探究城市道路平面信号交叉口交通事故成因,增强城市道路交叉口安全管控,本文基于事故统计数据,采用故障树分析、事件树分析及风险分析方法,得到了以下结论:1)在导致交通事故发生的因素中,人、车、路和环境因素的占比分别为59.7%、10.1%、17.4%和12.8%.其中“行人闯红灯”“未保持安全车距”“路面湿滑”和“驾驶员注意力不集中”为主要影响因素;2)追尾事故和机动车碰撞行人事故为城市道路平面信号交叉口交通事故的主要事故形态,通过建立包含这2种事故形态的事件树模型,得到了2条中高风险事件链,同时表明,相对于“路面湿滑”“驾驶员注意力不集中”对这2种事故形态的发生影响均较大.最后,针对高风险因素,提出了相应的预防控制措施.

In order to explore the causes of traffic crash at urban at-grade signalized intersections and enhance the safety control of urban intersections,this paper uses the fault tree analysis,event tree analysis and risk analysis methods based on crash data and obtains the following conclusions:1)Among the factors causing traffic crashes,people,vehicles,roads and environmental factors accounted for 59.7%,10.1%,17.4%and 12.8%,respectively.Among them,“Pedestrians violate signal lights”,“Failing to maintain a safe distance”,“Slippery road”,and“Inattentiveness of drivers”are the main factors;2)Rear-end crashes and motor vehicle collisions with pedestrians are the main patterns of traffic crashes at urban at-grade signalized intersections.This study built an event tree model containing these two crash patterns,obtained two medium and high risk event chains,and the results showed that,compared to the“Slippery road”factor,“Inattentiveness of drivers”has a greater impact on the two crash patterns.Finally,for high-risk factors,preventive and control measures are proposed.