日本是非现金化发展落后的国家吗?

Is Japan an Underdeveloped Country in Cashless Payments?

日本的非现金化是一个值得深入探讨的问题。如果仅以日本国内业界的定义和计算指标来衡量并进行国际比较,日本似乎可以被贴上“非现金化发展落后国家”的标签,但按照国际结算银行的相关界定和指标数值尤其是最近修正指标计算的结果,却反映出关于日本非现金化水平的不同认识。深入分析与非现金化发展有关的重要因素发现:日本官方构建的计算指标体系低估了日本的非现金结算状况;现金(与GDP之比)的增加是日本长期实施宽松货币政策的结果,不能用以客观衡量日本的非现金化水平;使用ATM和POS支付终端不能被确定为日本非现金化滞后的绊脚石,支付终端功能的扩大、各种卡的持有及其使用空间的挖掘也具有推动非现金化发展的正向作用。日本并不是流于表象的非现金化落后国家,日本在非现金化发展中面临的安全问题、社会问题以及未来货币政策的选择与实施等,或可为中国进一步发展非现金化提供镜鉴。

The cashless transaction in Japan deserves deep research.Japan seems lagging in the development of cashless payments according to the results of international comparison if only the related definitions and indicators in Japan are adopted.However,the statistical indicators by the Bank of International Settlement and the latest revised indicators proposed by two scholars in IMF provide a different conclusion.Based on the analysis of some important factors related with cashless transaction,it can be discovered that indicators proposed by Japanese governmental sector underestimate cashless payments.The increase in cash(or the ratio of cash to GDP)in Japan’s economy is the result of long-term monetary easing policy and can not fully measure the development of cashless transaction of Japan.The wide adoption of payment terminals such as ATM and POS in Japan are also not the obstacles for developing cashless transaction.On the contrary,it can possible promote the development of cashless payments in Japan.Therefore,despite some superficial impression,Japan is factually not an underdeveloped country in cashless payments.The challenge faced by Japan relating to financial security,social problems and how to implement monetary policy in the near future,can also provide some policy implications for China.