基于GM(1,1)改进模型在变形预测中的应用研究

Application of GM(1,1)improved model in deformation prediction

传统GM(1,1)模型在工程变形预测中受到众多不确定性因素的影响,会导致预测精度低、残差大。因此,文中对传统GM(1,1)中原始数据、初始值、以及背景值进行改进。最后以某大坝边坡监测点的沉降位移为例,分别用两种模型对该监测点位移进行拟合预测并与实际值比较。结果表明:改进模型精度优于传统模型,预测值更接近真实值,在实际工程中有更好的应用价值。

Traditional GM(1,1)model was affected by many uncertain factors in engineering deformation prediction,which would lead to the low prediction accuracy and the large residual.Therefore,in this paper,the original data,initial value and background value of traditional GM(1,1)were improved.Finally,taking the settlement displacement of a dam slope monitoring point as an example,two models were used to fit and predict the displacement of the monitoring point and compare with the actual value.The results showed that the precision of the improved model was better than that of the traditional model,and the predicted value was closer to the real value,which had better application value in practical engineering.