武汉市2019-nCoV新型冠状肺炎预测模型分析

Analysis of 2019-nCoV New Coronary Pneumonia Prediction Model in Wuhan

2019年12月,湖北省武汉市发现多起2019-nCov新型冠状病毒感染者,随后新冠肺炎开始在武汉市内大范围的传播、爆发。本文首先收集2020年1月16日至2月13日武汉市新冠肺炎每日新增人数,分别建立了ARIMA(1,2,1)模型和Holt双参数线性Holt双参数线性指数平滑指数平滑模型;然后,计算并比较两个模型的拟合度,证明Holt双参数线性指数平滑模型能更好地拟合武汉新冠肺炎的增长趋势;最后,利用模型对武汉2月11日至13日的新增感染人数做出预测,并结合实际数据比较分析,得出结论:武汉新冠肺炎的新增人数开始呈现出下降趋势,武汉市防疫措施积极有效,对疫情传播起到抑制的效果,可以为其他地区和国家防疫提供有效参考。

In December 2019,novel coronavirus pneumonia was found in Wuhan,Hubei province.Then the new crown pneumonia began to spread and outbreak in Wuhan.In this paper,the daily case of novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan from January 16,2020 to February 15 was collected.The ARIMA(1,2,1)model and the Holt double parameter linear exponential smoothing model were established respectively.The fitting results of the two models were compared.The results showed that the ARIMA(1,2,1)model better fitted the growth trend of the new crown pneumonia in Wuhan,and then predicted the number of new infection number in Wuhan from February 11 to 15 using ARIMA(1,2,1)model,and combined with actual data analysis,concluded that the number of new crowns in Wuhan began to show a downward trend,"inflection point"is coming,the epidemic prevention measures in Wuhan are effective,and can inhibit the spread of epidemic situation,and the research results can provide effective reference for other regions and countries.