人民币汇率变动对福建省就业的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Change on Employment in Fujian Province:An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

选取1981—2017年年度数据,运用VAR模型实证研究人民币汇率变动对福建省就业的影响。累积脉冲响应函数的结果表明,福建省总体就业受到人民币名义有效汇率冲击的反应是负向的,同时可以看到,这种冲击有一定的时滞性。方差分解的结果表明,汇率冲击对总体就业有一定的解释力。本文的样本区间内,人民币汇率升值会造成福建省总体就业水平的下降,但是下降程度有限。此外,研究表明,GDP和出口对福建省就业具有显著的促进作用,而工资上涨对福建省就业具有抑制效应。在实证研究的基础上,本文提出了提高福建省就业水平的政策建议。

Based on VAR model and annual data from 1981 to 2017,this paper uses cumulative impulse response function and variance decomposition to study the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on employment in Fujian Province.The results of cumulative impulse response function show that the response of Fujian's overall employment to the impact of nominal effective exchange rate of RMB is negative,that is,the appreciation of RMB will reduce Fujian's overall employment,and we can see that the impact has a certain time lag.The results of variance decomposition show that exchange rate shocks have some explanatory power on overall employment.Thus,from 1981 to 2017,the appreciation of RMB exchange rate will cause the overall employment decline in Fujian Province,but the decline is limited.Furthermore,research shows that GDP and export have a significant role in promoting employment in Fujian Province,while wage increase has a restraining effect on employment in Fujian Province.On the basis of empirical research,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the employment level of Fujian Province.