基于博弈论-云模型的城市道路交通运行状态综合评价

Comprehensive Evaluation of Urban Road Traffic Operation Status Based on Game Theory-Cloud Model

为更准确有效地评价城市道路交通运行状态,发现交通问题并制定改善策略,本文提出基于博弈论-云模型的城市道路交通运行状态综合评价方法,逐层实现微观-中观-宏观的交通运行状态评价分析。选取路段平均速度、路段饱和度、平均停车次数和行程时间比作为基本评价指标,分别采用直觉模糊熵法和信息熵法获取指标主、客观权重,并基于博弈论思想得到综合权重;由云模型的阈值云数字特性和X-条件云发生器分别求出指标云参数和云隶属度,最后根据有效性最大隶属度原则得到综合评价结果并生成等级结果云图。以贵阳市区域路网交通运行评价为例,通过与模糊评价、物元评价和可变模糊评价等综合评价方法比较,验证了该方法不仅合理有效,且更加灵敏,贴近实际。

In order to refine the evaluation of urban road traffic operation status,discover traffic problems and formulate reasonable improvement strategies,this paper proposes a comprehensive evaluation method of urban road traffic operation status based on game theory-cloud model to realize the evaluation analysis of micro-middle-macroscopic traffic operational status layer by layer.First,the average speed,segment saturation,average number of stops and travel time ratio are selected as the basic evaluation indicators.Next,intuitionistic fuzzy entropy method and information entropy method are used to obtain the main and objective weights of the indicators,and the comprehensive weights are calculated based on game theory.Then the threshold cloud digital characteristics and the X-condition cloud generator respectively are used to obtain the index cloud parameter and the cloud membership degree.Finally,the comprehensive evaluation result is obtained according to the principle of validity maximum membership degree and a hierarchical result cloud image is generated.Taking the traffic evaluation of regional road network in Guiyang as an example,compared with the comprehensive evaluation methods such as fuzzy evaluation,matter element evaluation and variable fuzzy evaluation,it is verified that the proposed method is not only reasonable and effective,but also more sensitive and close to reality.