基于健康码区块链的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控与评估研究

Prevention,Control and Evaluation of COVID-19 Epidemic based on Health-code Blockchain

新型冠状病毒潜伏期可以传染,以及存在着无症状感染者情况.这些都给流行病学调查带来巨大挑战.本文提出一个结合健康码和区块链、建立利用健康码区块链对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情进行防控模型,对疫情防控难易程度和成效进行评估.结合模型和模拟有三个发现,一是发现疫情中封闭城市对经济社会发展会产生平方效应(平面叠加效应),甚至是立体叠加效应,对经济社会活动带来重大打击;二是发现防护的作用十分明显,可以有效地降低了无症状者所导致的传染人数;认为借助健康码链,可以查找无症状者.三是发现可以对不同区域防控策略进行优化,认为节点度越高的区域要实行更为严格的防控措施,农村、中心镇和中心城区应采取不同的防控策略.文章最后指出健康码链模型具有广泛的应用价值.

In this paper,we try to solve the challenge of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control brought by infectivity in incubation period and asymptomatic infections.A COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control model is developed by using health-code blockchain.The spatial association matrix is used to assess the difficulty and effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control.Combined with the model and simulation,there are three findings:first,it is found that the closed city in the epidemic will have a square effect(plane superposition effect)on the economic and social development,or even a three-dimensional superposition effect,which will bring a major blow to economic and social activities.Second,it is found that the protective effect is very obvious,which can effectively reduce the number of infectious persons caused by asymptomatic infections.It is believed that with the help of the health-code blockchain,we can find asymptomatic infections.Third,it is found that the prevention and control strategies of different regions can be optimized.It is believed that the higher the node degree,the more strict the prevention and control measures should be implemented in the regions,and different prevention and control strategies should be adopted in the rural areas,central towns and central urban areas.