基于大数据视角的新冠肺炎疫情防控能力建设

Construction of COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control Capacity Based on Big Data Perspective

数据来源于中国统计年鉴、国家卫生健康委员会、百度迁徙公布的公开数据。2019年底武汉地区爆发的新冠肺炎疫情引起世界广泛关注,如何有效防控成为世界各国关心的话题.首先,对突发公共卫生事件的两种应对机制进行分析,其次,利用网络爬虫技术获取武汉封城前人口迁移数据和国内新冠疫情数据,进行统计分析,并对国内30个省和湖北省15个地区的疫情防控能力进行测算,最后,总结新冠疫情防控过程中出现的问题,提出疫情防控机制建设意见.研究结论表明:采用"哨兵模式"存在决策困境,对"吹哨人"容错免责的"哨兵模式和"基于大数据技术的"精算模式"是未来防范突发卫生公共事件的有效方法,加快大数据平台建设,从"封闭式管控"向"精准性智控"转变是未来发展的方向.

The data used in this paper are from the public data published in China Statistical Yearbook and National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China,as well as Baidu migration big data(desensitization data).The novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan in late 2019 attracted worldwide attention.How to effectively prevent and control it has become a topic of concern in the world.First of all,the two coping mechanisms of public health emergencies are analyzed.Secondly,the data of population migration before the closure of Wuhan and the data of epidemic situation in China are obtained by using the technology of web crawler,and the epidemic prevention and control ability of 30 provinces and 15 regions in Hubei Province are calculated.Finally,the problems in the process of epidemic prevention and control are summarized,and the epidemic prevention and control are put forward Opinions on the construction of control mechanism.The research conclusion shows that there are decision-making difficulties in adopting "sentinel mode".The "sentinel mode" of fault tolerance and exemption for "Whistler" and "actuarial mode" based on big data technology are effective methods to prevent public health emergencies in the future.Accelerating the construction of big data platform and changing from "closed control" to"accurate intelligent control" are the direction of future development.