贸易摩擦背景下中美经济协动性变化分析

A structural analysis of the cooperative changes of China and the US from the perspective of trade friction

数据显示中美两国经济的协动性变化明显,基于此事实,以技术进步与投资扩张作为切入点,构建开放经济条件下中美两国贸易模型。模型采用最大似然估计,数值模拟结果显示:(1)整体上,中国技术进步与投资扩张对美国经济发展的影响大于美国对中国的影响,这种影响虽然短期为负,但长期为正;(2)随着美国技术溢出程度增加,中国的技术进步对两国经济的正向影响增强,并能显著提高两国居民的福利水平,但同时也会增加两国的失业率;(3)随着美国投资溢出程度增加,中国的投资扩张对美国经济的负向影响增强,降低了美国居民的福利水平,但是对美国就业率的影响为正。最后提出相关政策建议。

The data shows that the economic cooperation between China and the United States has been changing significantly.Based on this,this paper builds a Sino-US trade model under the open economy.Model parameters are derived from the maximum likelihood estimates for quarterly data from the two countries.We have the numerical simulation results as follows.1.China s technological progress and investment expansion have a greater impact on US economic development than the US s impact on China.Although this effect is negative in the short term,it is positive in a long run.2.With the increasing degree of US technology spillover,China s technological progress will have a positive impact on the economic development of the two countries and will significantly increase the welfare level of the two countries,and meanwhile will increase the unemployment rate of the two countries.3.With the increase in US investment spillovers,the negative impact of China s investment expansion on the US economic development is increasing,reducing the welfare level of the US residents,but the impact on the US employment rate is positive.Based on this,we offer suggestions for policy makers.