基于LMDI模型的居民电力消费影响因素研究

Affective Factors of Residential Electricity Consumption Based on LMDI Model

文章基于2005-2017年中国30个省(市、区)的居民电力消费数据,将消费强度效应、经济效应、用电强度效应和人口规模效应作为居民电力消费的影响因素,构建LMDI模型,从全国-各地区-各省(市、区)三个层面对居民电力消费量进行增长动因分析。结果表明,就全国层面而言,经济效应和用电强度效应是促进我国居民电力消费量增长的主要因素;就六大地理区域层面而言,华东地区和中南地区是我国居民电力消费增长的主要地区;就各省(市、区)而言,广东省、江苏省和山东省位居居民电力消费增量前三。最后通过比较分析各地区、各省(市、区)的居民电力消费增长情况,根据研究结果提出相应建议。

Based on the residential electricity consumption data of 30 provinces(municipals or autonomous regions at the same level)in China from 2005 to 2017,the factors affecting residential electricity consumption have been investigated from consumption intensity effect,economic effect,electricity intensity effect,and population effect,and the motivation to increase residential electricity consumption has been analyzed from three levels-national,regional,and provincial-through constructing LMDI model.The results show that on the national level economic effect and electricity intensity effect are the main factors promoting the growth of electricity consumption in China,that in terms of the six geographical regions,eastern China,and central and southern China are the main areas for the growth of electricity consumption in China,and that as for the provinces,Guangdong,Jiangsu and Shandong are the top three for the increase of residential electricity consumption.Finally,through comparatively analyzing the residential electricity consumption growth among regions and provinces,some relevant suggestions have been provided according to findings.