温州市儿童手足口病和疱疹性咽峡炎的流行特征及其与气候因素的相关性分析

Epidemiological characteristics of children with hand,foot,and mouth disease and herpetic angina in Wenzhou City and their correlation with meteorological factors

目的:通过分析温州市儿童手足口病和疱疹性咽峡炎的流行特征与气候因素对其发病的影响,为早期预警和预防疾病的流行提供依据。方法:纳入2012年至2017年在温州医科大学附属第二医院、育英儿童医院就诊的62809例手足口病患儿和56005例疱疹性咽峡炎患儿,并收集同期温州市的气象资料,进行Spearman相关性分析与多元线性逐步回归分析。结果:手足口病和疱疹性咽峡炎发病例数皆在春季开始增多,5至7月达高峰后下降,随后在9至12月出现次高峰,冬季发病明显减少。单因素相关分析显示,不同气候因素对手足口病和疱疹性咽峡炎的影响基本一致。多元线性逐步回归分析显示,月平均气温(X)与手足口病发病例数呈正相关,回归方程为Y=-161.450+53.828X(F=22.250,P<0.01);月平均相对湿度(X 1)和月平均气温(X 2)与疱疹性咽峡炎发病例数呈正相关,回归方程为Y=-3521.196+46.814X 1+41.762X 2(F=18.351,P<0.01)。结论:手足口病与疱疹性咽峡炎在发病时间趋势上一致。气候因素与手足口病和疱疹性咽峡炎的关系密切,其发病趋势受气候变化影响明显。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of children with hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)and herpetic angina(HA)in Wenzhou City and the influence of meteorological factors on the pathogenesis,and to provide basis for early warning and disease prevention.Methods A total of 62809 children diagnosed with HFMD and 56005 with HA in the 2nd Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University during 2012 to 2017 were enrolled.The meteorological factors during 2012 to 2017 were collected monthly.The data were analyzed using Spearman rank correlation and multivariant linear stepwise regression model.Results The number of cases of HFMD and HA began to rise in the spring,and decreased after reaching the peak from May to July.Then there was a secondary peak from September to December,and the incidence decreased significantly in winter.Univariate correlation analysis showed that the effects of different meteorological factors on HFMD and HA were basically the same.Multivariant linear stepwise regression analysis showed that there was a positive correlation between monthly mean temperature(X)and the number of HFMD cases.The regression equation was Y=-161.450+53.828X(F=22.250,P<0.01).Monthly mean relative humidity(X1)and temperature(X2)were positively associated with the number of HA cases.The regression equation was Y=-3521.196+46.814X1+41.762X2(F=18.351,P<0.01).Conclusions The trends of onset time of HFMD and HA are similar.The meteorological factors are closely related to HFMD and HA,and their incidence trends are significantly affected by meteorological changes.