科技演化模式与市场的距离测度——以我国生物制药领域为例

Distance Measurement between Scientific and Technological Evolution Pattern and Market: Taking the Field of Biopharmaceuticals in China as an Example

[目的/意义]文章提出一种采取多维度数据识别科技演化模式,并对接市场测度不同科技演化模式与市场的距离以预测有潜力进行商业化的科技研究重点主题的方法,为科研人员确定研究课题、企业有侧重地进行技术商业化开发、政府部门政策制定提供借鉴。[方法/过程]利用Python通过LDA主题模型结合专家意见进行文本挖掘,提取精炼科学、技术、市场研究的重点主题,将科学、技术主题映射识别出科技演化模式,并将市场主题对接以测度不同科技演化模式的主题成功演化为市场研究重点主题的比例,从而识别出与市场距离较近的科技演化模式以预测有潜力进行商业化开发的科技研究重点主题。[结果/结论]将该方法应用于当下发展潜力巨大的我国生物制药领域,以2002—2016年为研究区间,结果表明基因测序、脂质体、肺癌等科技研究重点主题具备商业化开发潜力,与我国生物制药产业发展热点与需求点相契合,证明了该方法具备稳健性。

[Purpose/significance]This paper proposes a method for using multi-dimensional data to identify scientific and technological evolution patterns,and to connect the market to measure different scientific and technology evolution patterns and market distances to predict potential scientific and technological research themes.The method determines the research themes for the scientific research personnel,and makes the enterprises have the options to carry out the technical commercialization developments,and provides the government department policy formulation references.[Method/process]Text mining with LDA theme model using Python and expert opinions,extracting and refining key themes of science,technology and market research,mapping science and technology themes to identify patterns of scientific and technological evolution,and docking market themes to measure distances between different scientific and technological evolution patterns and market.According to the proportion of the themes successfully evolved into the focus of market research,identify the scientific and technological evolution pattern that is closer to the market to predict the key themes of science and technology research that have potential for commercial developments.[Result/conclusion]The method is applied to the field of biopharmaceuticals with great potential for development in China,with 2002-2016 as the research interval.The results show that the key themes of science and technology research such as gene sequencing,liposome and lung cancer have potential for commercial developments.The results are consistent with the development hotspots and demand points of China’s biopharmaceutical industry,which proves that the method is robust.