基于时间序列的贵阳市烟草生长期内降水量预测

为了对贵阳市烟草生长期内的降水量进行预测,文章利用Matlab、Eviews软件,基于贵阳市1958-2012年5-8月的降水量数据,建立时间序列预测模型。再应用此模型对贵阳市2013-2018年5-8月总降水量进行预测,与实际值对比检验模型的有效性。最后对贵阳市2019-2022年的降水量进行预测,并利用降水距平百分率得出其旱涝等级,从而有效预防旱涝急转对贵阳市经济作物产生的不良影响。

In order to predict the precipitation during the growth period of tobacco in Guiyang City,this paper uses Matlab and Eviews software to establish a time series prediction model based on the precipitation data of Guiyang city from May to August during the years 1958-2012.Then the model is applied to predict the total precipitation of Guiyang from May to August of the years 2013-2018,and the validity of the model is verified by comparing with the actual value.Finally,the precipitation of Guiyang City in the years 2019-2022 is predicted,and then the grade of drought and flood is obtained by using the percentage of precipitation anomaly,so as to effectively prevent the adverse impact of the rapid change of drought and flood on the economic crops of Guiyang City.