复杂仿真模型可信度评估:挑战与方法

Credibility Assessment of Complex Simulation Models: Challenges and Methods

仿真在军事、工业、经济、环境和社会等领域得到了广泛应用,与此同时,人们对仿真模型的可信度越来越关注。随着计算机和建模与仿真技术的快速发展,仿真模型越来越精细和复杂,导致可信度评估面临着许多新的挑战。首先系统地归纳总结复杂仿真模型可信度评估面临的8项挑战。在此基础上,制定复杂仿真模型可信度评估的基本框架和策略,提出应对各项关键挑战的主要技术和方法。研究结果有助于从总体上把握复杂仿真模型可信度评估的主要挑战、基本框架和主要方法,从而创新和推动可信度评估的理论和实践研究。

Simulation has been applied widely in military,industrial,environmental,social and economic areas in recent years.Meanwhile,the credibility of simulation models is becoming more and more concerned.Along with the rapid development of computing,modeling and simulation techniques,simulation models become more and more elaborate and complicated,which makes the credibility assessment of complex simulation models encountering many new challenges.Firstly,eight challenges of credibility assessment were summarized.Then,the basic framework for credibility assessment of complex simulation models was presented.Finally,technologies and methods were proposed to cope with these challenges.In a word,the results provide an overview of challenges,framework and methods for credibility assessment,which may innovate and advance the research and practice on credibility assessment of complex simulation models.