基于GCM模型的塔里木河流域未来降水与气温变化规律研究

Study on Future Precipitation and Temperature Change Regulationin Tarim River Basin Based on GCM Model

为研究塔里木河流域未来降水、气温变化,提出了GCM下RCP2. 6、RCP4. 5、RCP8. 5三种情景与分布式水文模型SWAT相对接的研究方案。采用气候模式输出的降水、气温等资料作为SWAT模型输入数据,分析未来2020-2050年流域降水、气温变化规律,结果表明:在RCP2. 6情景下,各子流域降水大多表现为增加趋势,在RCP4. 5情景下降水表现出减少趋势,在RCP8. 5情景下降水趋势性不明显;在不同RCP情景下,各子流域温度均呈现明显上升趋势,且升温情况随着RCP情景对应辐射强迫的增加而增加。研究结果为流域水资源规划和管理提供了重要参考。

For study the response of future precipitation,temperature change and runoff in Tarim River Basin,three scenarios of RCP 2.6,RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 under GCM are proposed,that related to SWAT,a distributed hydrological model.Using the data of precipitation and temperature output from climate model as input data of SWAT model,the variation of precipitation,temperature in the future 2020-2050 s watershed is analysis.The results show that under RCP 2.6 scenario,the precipitation in each sub-watershed tends to increase,while in RCP 4.5 scenario,the downward water tends to decrease,while in RCP 8.5 scenario,the downward water tendencies are not obvious.In 2020-2050,the annual runoff of Aksu River and Hotan River increased significantly,and the increase gradually increased from RCP 2.6 to RCP 8.5.The research results provide important reference for water resources planning and management in river basins.