中国统计思想的历史演进:回顾与思考

Historical Evolution of Chinese Statistical Thought:Review and Reflection

文章以中国统计思想形成路径——社会需求、应用实践、学派争论、学科交叉为主线,按发展程度分别对中国古代、近代及现代统计思想演变历程进行系统概括及探讨。研究表明:第一,中国古代统计思想依附于其他学科发展,呈片段、分散状态,但仍为后来统计思想进阶作了历史准备,起到了先导、铺垫作用;第二,近代实现了统计学科独立,并尝试与国际接轨,为现代统计思想的发展奠定了基础;第三,中国现代统计思想历经了初期探索、恢复与发展、“大统计”“大数据”等四个发展阶段,与国际统计思想实现交流融合,在古代、近代统计思想的基础上实现更高效的发展与创新。

This paper takes the formation path of China's statistical thought--social demand,application practice,school argument and interdisciplinary as the main line,and then accords to the development degree to systematically summarizes and discusses the evolution course of Chinese ancient,modern-times and modern statistical thought,respectively.The research shows that,first,the ancient Chinese statistical thought is attached to the development of other disciplines,fragmented and scattered,but it still makes historical preparations for the later advancement of statistical thought and plays a pioneering and paving role;second,in modern times,the discipline of statistics has achieved independence and attempted to be in line with the international standards,laying a foundation for the development of modern statistical thought;third,new Chinese statistical thought has gone through four stages of development,namely,initial exploration when new China was founded,recovery and development after reform and opening up,"big statistics"and"big data",and it has realized the exchange and integration with international statistical thoughts,and also achieved more efficient development and innovation on the basis of ancient and modern-times statistical thoughts.