基于逐步回归分析和通径分析的用水量影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Water Consumption Based on Stepwise Regression and Path Analysis

针对水资源供需矛盾日益突出的问题,运用逐步回归分析和通径分析深入分析玉溪市用水量及其影响因素,构建用水量预测模型,探求影响玉溪市用水量的主要因素及影响程度。结果表明,第一产业在生产总值中的比重、人口自然增长率、粮食作物种植比例是影响总用水量的三个主要因素,第一产业在生产总值中的比重、粮食作物种植比例对总用水量增加起促进作用,人口自然增长率对总用水量增加的间接促进作用最大;用水量预测模型能较好地拟合用水量变化。

According to increasing conflict of water consumption supply and demand,this article aims to further analyze factors of water consumption of Yuxi City by means of stepwise regression analysis and path analysis,searching its key factors and influencing degree in order to form a predicting water consumption model.The results show that the proportion of the primary industry,growth rate of population and proportion of grain crop are three main factors to influence water consumption,and the former two factors promote to increase water consumption directly,the latter factor seems comparatively a minor facilitation but also functions importantly;The prediction model can better imitate the process of how water consumption changes.