人民币国际化、汇率波动与双边贸易——基于“一带一路”国家面板门槛模型的分析

RMB Internationalization,Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Bilateral Trade:Based on Analysis of Panel Threshold Model of"One Belt and One Road"Country

以“一带一路”沿线国家贸易及汇率数据为基础,讨论不同人民币国际化水平下,人民币汇率对贸易的异质性影响。通过面板计量模型发现:第一,人民币贬值、人民币国际化的推进均有助于改善中国的出口贸易条件,人民币汇率波动对出口和进口均呈现出负面效应;第二,随着人民币国际化水平的提高,人民币汇率贬值所带来的出口改善效应逐渐增强,但对进口的影响并不明显;第三,随着人民币国际化水平的提高,汇率波动所带来的风险规避效应逐渐减弱,从而缓释了汇率波动对出口的抑制作用。总体而言,人民币国际化进程对中国贸易条件具有正面促进功效,在出口拉动经济的角度上看,人民币国际化的持续推进是本文所支持的政策导向。

Based on the trade and exchange rate data of"One Belt and One Road"countries,this paper discussed the heterogeneous influence of RMB exchange rate on the trade at different RMB internationalization levels.By combining the panel threshold model,it is found that,firstly,the depreciation of RMB exchange rata and the advancement of RMB internationalization will help improve China's export trade conditions.The RMB exchange rate fluctuation has negative effect on both exports and imports.Secondly,with the improvement of RMB internationalization level,the export improvement effect brought by the depreciation of RMB exchange rate has gradually increased,but the impact on imports is not obvious.Thirdly,with the increase of RMB internationalization level,the risk aversion effect brought by RMB exchange rate fluctuations has gradually weakened,which eases the restraining effect of exchange rate fluctuations on exports.In general,the advancement of RMB internationalization has positive effect on China's trade conditions.From the perspective of export-led economy,the continued promotion of RMB internationalization is the policy orientation supported here.