贸易政策不确定性影响高技术产业技术进步的机制与检验——基于知识产权保护的门限分析

Mechanism and Test of Trade Policy Uncertainty Affecting Technological Progress of High-tech Industry:Threshold Empirical Analysis Based on Intellectual Property Protection

理论分析发现,全球贸易政策不确定性的不断上升严重抑制高技术产业技术进步,这种抑制作用受到知识产权保护水平的“门限”影响。使用2008—2017年全球34个发达经济体及33个新兴市场经济体的面板数据,运用广义差分GMM实证检验贸易政策不确定性影响高技术产业技术进步的内在机理,并结合门限回归模型分析不同知识产权保护水平下贸易政策不确定性对高技术产业技术进步的影响。研究发现,贸易政策不确定性显著抑制高技术产业技术进步。进一步将知识产权保护水平纳入总样本门限回归模型,通过单门限检验,当知识产权保护水平低于4.7时,贸易政策不确定性显著抑制高技术产业技术进步,而当知识产权保护水平跨越4.7时,贸易政策不确定性显著促进高技术产业技术进步。分样本门限回归显示,发达经济体知识产权保护水平的门限值为5.3,高于新兴市场经济体的4.1。因此,在全球贸易政策不确定性上升的背景下,依据自身情况加强知识产权保护,坚持创新驱动已成为各经济体促进高技术产业技术进步的重要途径。

Theoretical analysis shows that the rising uncertainty of global trade policy seriously restricts the technological progress of high-tech industries,and the inhibition is affected by the"threshold"of the level of intellectual property protection.l.Based on the panel data of 34 developed economies and 33 emerging market economies from 2008 to 2017,GMM is used to empirically test the internal mechanism of trade policy uncertainty affecting the technological progress of high-tech industries.Combined with threshold regression model,the influence of trade policy uncertainty on the technological level of high-tech industries under different levels of intellectual property protection is analyzed.It is found that the uncertainty of trade policy significantly restricts the technical level of high-tech industry.To further integrate the level of intellectual property protection into the total sample threshold regression model through a single threshold test,when the level of intellectual property protection is lower than 4.7,the uncertainty of trade policy can significantly inhibit the technical level of high-tech industry,while when the level of intellectual property protection exceeds 4.7,the uncertainty of trade policy can significantly promote the technical level of high-tech industry.The threshold regression shows that the threshold value of intellectual property protection in developed economies is 5.3,which is higher than that in emerging market economies.Therefore,in the context of the rising uncertainty of global trade policy,strengthening intellectual property protection and insisting on innovation drive are important for economies to promote the technological progress in high-tech industries.