撒哈拉以南非洲国家经济增长的收敛性分析

Convergence Analysis of Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

经济增长是经济学家关注的永恒话题,而针对全球最不发达地区——撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)国家经济增长问题的研究尤其具有理论和现实意义。本文利用含26个SSA国家在内的全球102个国家和地区1985~2015年样本数据,对SSA国家经济增长的收敛性进行实证分析。研究结果显示:第一,SSA地区内部国家之间存在条件收敛,即在控制了技术进步率、储蓄率、人力资本、人口增长率和折旧率等条件之后,人均收入较低的国家拥有相对较高的经济增长率;第二,在全球范围内SSA国家的人均收入会向其他更为富裕的国家或地区进行条件收敛,但是当SSA国家的人均收入达到世界其他国家或地区人均收入均值的20%水平以后,该条件收敛效应就会被抵消;第三,在控制了政府稳定性、民主问责制、法律和社会秩序等制度变量之后,尽管SSA国家向其他国家或地区收敛的瓶颈值并未消失,但该瓶颈值得到了显著放松,其人均收入在达到世界其他地区人均收入均值的35%以后,条件收敛才会停止。可见,落后国家或地区实现经济上赶超的"后发优势"是阶段性的,而通过营商环境等制度性因素的改善能够延长后发优势的持续时间。本文的研究对于中国实现全面脱贫,进一步促进区域经济协调发展具有一定的指导意义。

While economic growth is a constant topic to economists,research on economic growth in the global least developed regions——Sub-Saharan Africa(SSA)countries is of particular theoretical and practical implications.Based on the 1985-2015 sample data of 102 countries including 26 SSA countries,this paper empirically analyzes the convergence of economic growth in SSA countries.First,there is a convergence of conditions between countries within the SSA region,i.e.countries with lower per capita income have relatively high economic growth rates after controlling for technological progress rates,savings rates,human capital,population growth rates and depreciation rates.Secondly,there is also conditional convergence on a global scale,i.e.the per capita income of SSA countries converges conditionally to that of other richer countries.But when the per capita income of SSA countries reaches a level of 20%of the average per capita income of countries in the rest of the world,the condition will be off set.Thirdly,after controlling for institutional variables such as government stability,democratic accountability,law and social order,although the bottleneck value of convergence between SSA countries and other countries has not disappeared,the neck value has been signifi cantly relaxed,and its per capita income will not stop until it reaches 35%of the average per capita income in the rest of the world.These results show that the"late-development advantage"of backward countries or regions to achieve economic catch-up is phased,and the improvement of business environment and other institutional factors can prolong the duration of late-development advantage.The research of this paper has certain guiding significance for China to win the battle against poverty in 2020 and realize the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects.