摘要
以引调水工程中倒虹吸管身失稳险情为研究对象,从自然、工程、人为及管理这四大因素出发,考虑其各风险因子间复杂、动态的关系,建立了基于系统动力学的风险分析反馈模型,分析影响倒虹吸工程稳定的因子的重要性程度,并采用层次分析法所得结果对构建的反馈模型进行验证,结果表明该模型具有良好的精度和一定的适用性,为将来引调水工程风险评估工作提供了一条新的途径。
Taking the risk instability of inverted siphon in the water diversion project as the research objective,considering the complex and dynamic relationship between the four factors such as nature,engineering,man-made and management,a risk analysis feedback model based on system dynamics was established.The importance of factor which may affect the stability of the inverted siphon project was analyzed.The results of the analytic hierarchy process were used to validate the feedback model.The results showed that the model had good accuracy and applicability,which may provide a new way for risk assessment of water diversion projects in the future.
作者
王芳
何勇军
李宏恩
WANG Fang;HE Yongjun;LI Hongen(Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology,Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing 210029,China;Key Laboratory of Failure Mechanis and Safety Control Techniques of Earth rock Dam of the Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,Chima)
出处
《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》
CAS
北大核心
2020年第3期184-191,共8页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405006)。
关键词
风险分析
系统动力学
层次分析法
倒虹吸工程
引调水工程
risk analysis
system dynamics
analytic hierarchy process
inverted siphon projects
water diversion project
