气候变化背景下北京浅山区社会-生态系统脆弱性评估

Assessment on socio-ecosystem vulnerability in shallow mountain area of Beijing under climate change background

【目的】在气候变化的背景下,社会-生态系统视角下的区域脆弱性评估可以较为全面地识别区域气候风险。在城市中,浅山区具有其特有的气候调节的重要性和气候适应的脆弱性,且社会与生态系统的耦合特征更为明显。作为气候适应的重要环节,气候变化背景下的北京浅山区社会-生态系统脆弱性评估有助于为气候适应策略提供空间上的定量参考。【方法】本研究采用"危险性-暴露度-敏感性-适应能力"评估框架,构建包含44个指标的指标集,并通过主成分分析法对指标进行降维筛选及权重确定,形成社会-生态系统脆弱性评价指标体系,进而评估北京市浅山区社会-生态系统在当前和未来气候条件下的脆弱性空间分布。【结果】当前和未来的气候脆弱性均呈现出由中心城区向深山区逐渐降低的趋势,脆弱性程度以中度、重度为主,未来脆弱性整体呈上升趋势。在行政分区上,昌平、顺义、海淀区气候脆弱性较低,房山、丰台、门头沟区较为严重。【结论】本研究通过评估北京市浅山区社会-生态系统在当前和未来气候条件下的脆弱性空间分布,得到北京浅山区气候适应的重点区域,为浅山区气候适应决策提供依据,并为气候变化背景下区域脆弱性评估提供方法及指标作为参考。

[Objective]Under the background of climate change,regional vulnerability assessment under the perspective of socio-ecosystem can identify regional climate risks more comprehensively.In urban areas,shallow mountain area has their uniqueness because of the importance of climate regulation and the vulnerability of climate adaptation,and the coupling between social system and ecosystem is more obvious.As an important link of climate adaptation,the socio-ecosystem vulnerability assessment under climate change background in Beijing shallow mountain area is helpful to provide quantitative reference for climate adaptation strategies in spatial planning.[Method]In this study,the assessment framework of"riskexposure-sensitivity-adaptability"was adopted to construct an index set containing 44 indicators.Through the principal component analysis method,dimensionality reduction screening and weight determination of indicators were carried out to form the index system of social-ecosystem vulnerability assessment.Then the spatial distribution of the vulnerability of socio-ecosystem in the shallow mountainous areas of Beijing was evaluated under the present and future climatic conditions.[Result]The current and future climate vulnerability showed a trend of gradually decreasing from the central urban area to the deep mountains,and the degree of vulnerability was mainly moderate and severe,while the overall future vulnerability showed an upward trend.Among administrative zones,the vulnerability of Changping,Shunyi and Haidian districts was at a lower level,and the vulnerability of Fangshan,Fengtai and Mentougou districts was more serious.[Conclusion]By evaluating the spatial distribution of the vulnerability of socio-ecological system in the shallow mountainous area of Beijing under current and future climatic conditions,the key areas of the climate adaptation in the shallow mountainous area of Beijing were obtained,which provide the basis for the climate adaptation policy in the shallow mountainous area,and provide the method or index reference for the regional vulnerability assessment under climate change background.