空间故障网络中单向环转化与事件发生概率计算

Unidirectional ring transformation and the event probability calculation in the space fault network

为了研究系统故障演化过程,提出了空间故障网络理论。论述了前期空间故障网络中单向环研究的不足,并针对不足展开研究。认为环状结构中最终事件发生概率是每次循环中最终事件发生概率的累加,且每次循环最终事件发生概率都是下次的条件概率。基于上述最终事件发生概率的诠释,制定了3种典型环状结构的网络描述形式,以及其对应的空间故障树转化机制;并根据需要定义了环状结构、有序关系、同位事件和同位连接的概念,给出了3种形式最终事件发生概率计算方法。最后论述了研究的不足和下一步需要研究的内容。

The present paper is inclined to put forward a theory of the Space Fault Tree(SFT),which serves as the SFT theoretical basis.Actually,the theory is by nature an intelligent SFT and the Space Fault Network(SFN).As a matter of fact,SFT system can help to do a lot of research work.However,for thetime being,the SFN can only be a method based on the SFT,which helps to describe the system fault evolutionary process.Its function is to elaborate the unidirectional ring transformation from SFN to SFT,and serves as the calculation method of the event probability deduction in the SFN.Seeing the problem,the paper has to discuss and analyze the deficiencies of the unidirectional ring in the previous SFN,and then tries to provide for a more profound discussion of its deficiencies.As a matter of fact,the probability of the target event in a ring structure can be taken as the cumulative probability of the same target event in many times.And the probability of the target events in each current cycle can be taken as the conditional probability for the next time.Based on the interpretation of the probability of the target events,it is possible to develop and evolve into novel more detailed descriptions of the 3 kinds of ring networks.And,in turn,it is necessary to define the concepts of the ring structure and the proper order of the relation or relations,with a fuller discussion of their physical implications.For example,the SFN representations and the symbolic meanings of the 3 kinds of ring structures can be given in the following way.And,then,it is also necessary to identify and determine the corresponding transformation mechanisms of SFT.Though such a kind of transformation can be made different from the already existing SFT,it is also possible to provide useful advices from the concepts and methods in the existing SFT.The transformed SFT is given in which the no-relevant structure,or-relevant structure and and-relevant structure are transformed into SFT.In order to ensure the logical relationship of transformed events,the isotope events and the isotope connections can still be properly defined,with their properties and functions being properly expounded so as to ensure the logical relationships of the events as a result of transformation.According to the logical relationship of the events in the transformed SFT,it remains possible for the probabilities of the target events for the three kinds of ring structures to be calculated and worked out.And,finally,we have also given a proper discussion of the deficiency of the present research and what has to be done for the next step.