大型客车事故人员逃生决策模型研究

Passengers’ immediate escape decision model for the motor-coach accidents

为研究客车事故后人员应急决策心理及逃生行为特征,选取110名符合我国性别、年龄分布的样本成员进行问卷调查,通过显著性分析得到影响人员决策行为的个人因素。根据朴素贝叶斯理论对上述影响因素进行学习、训练,模拟人员的潜意识逃生决策。结合环境因素由层次分析法构造判断矩阵,构建客车事故后人员逃生决策模型。进行客车事故逃生试验,试验结果与模型预测结果具有较好的一致性。研究表明,客车事故后人员的应急决策心理在很大程度上受个体先天特征及后天经验的影响。

The present paper has chosen 110 sampling members to confirm the distributive situation of the gender and age difference in China to conduct a questionnaire survey to trace and identify the characteristic features of the emergency decisionmaking psychology and the behaviors of passengers’escape on account of bus accident happening.By means of the significance analysis method of contingency table,the paper has done an analysis of the personal factors that may influence the decisionmaking behaviors of the passengers on account of the different categories of gender,personality,riding frequency and traffic accident experience.According to the report of over 200 typical cases of passenger traffic accidents,such as by the accident tracing in accordance with the on-spot scenario photos taken by the accident monitoring video recordings,the accident inquiry transcripts,the accident casualty accounting identification and vehicle attacking accident inspection reports,we have managed to obtain the decision-making escape behaviors of the traffic supervisors of the real accident scenarios.According to the questionnaire response and the results of the accident analysis,we have managed to divide the passengers’escape decision-making behaviors into 4 types:the leadership type,the follow-up type,the tension type and the in-situ waiting type.According to the naive Bayesian theory,the above factors can be trained to simulate the subconscious escape decision-making of the personnel under study.Based on the environmental factors,the judgment matrix can be built up as a result of tracing the analytic hierarchical process,and the decision-making model of the passenger escape when a bus accident is hit by.Combining the 2 kinds of escape decision-making models,it would be possible to predict the type of the escape decision-making of the occupant as a result of the accident by using the personnel characteristic variables.And,finally,the imitated bus accident escape experiment can be laid out,with the experimental results being in nice agreement with the model predicted results.The tracing observation and the actual in-situ research results show that the emergency decisionmaking psychology of the passengers following the bus accidents can largely be affected by the individual congenital features and the experience gained.Among them,gender and temperament type ought to have a greater impact on the emergency escape decision-making after the bus accidents,which can be manifested in the fact that men are more active than women in the escaping process,and among them those with mucous and depressive personality tend to behave obviously calmer enthusiastically.And,in front of the unexpected hit by the accidents and evacuation,men are more active than women prove to have a positive impact on their final emergency decision-making.