刑罚威慑的理论重构与实证检验

Theoretical Reconstruction and Empirical Test of Penalty Deterrence

"刑罚具有有效的威慑效力"这一论断被广泛认可,但是与此形成反差的是,关于刑罚威慑的研究并没有充分展开。既有的研究常常聚焦于理性人假说的循环论证,并将刑罚威慑等同于利用刑罚严厉性进行威慑,忽视对刑罚威慑实际效果的实证检验。在理论构造上,刑罚威慑由于依托于潜在犯罪人对刑罚的主观感知因而具有复杂的因果路径,其可以通过严厉性、确定性以及及时性三个维度对犯罪发挥遏制作用。运用"动态因果模型"对我国36年来犯罪与刑罚的互动关系所展开的实证研究显示,刑罚的各个维度对严重的暴力犯罪均没有威慑效力。对一些非暴力的财产犯罪,刑罚确定性则具有稳定而显著的威慑效力。在刑罚严厉性的维度中,仅有提高收监率可以低程度地增加威慑效力,而提高重刑率不但不能起到遏制效果,反而会对许多类型的犯罪起到促进作用。

The assertion that"penalty has effective deterrent effect"is widely recognized,but correspondingly,the academic research on punishment deterrence has not been fully developed.Due to the debate between the old and the new theories in criminal law,previous research on the deterrence of punishment tends to focus on the circular argumentation of the hypothetical rational hypothesis and equates punishment deterrence with the use of severe punishment.However,the empirical study on the deterrent effect of punishment has been neglected.Theoretically,the penalty deterrence has a complex causal path and it relies on the subjective perception of potential offenders.Also,the deterrent effect depends on three dimensions:the severity,the certainty,and the swiftness.Using the"dynamic causal model"to study the relationship between crime and punishment in China for 36 years,results show that all dimensions of punishment have no deterrent effect on serious violent crimes,but for some non-violent property crimes,the certainty of punishment has a stable and significant deterrent effect.In terms of the severity of penalties,only increasing the rate of imprisonment has a certain deterrent effect.Increasing the rate of harsh punishment,however,can even increase the crime rate in certain crime types.