生育二孩是否影响流动人口家庭储蓄——基于2016年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据

Whether Have a Second Child Affects the Household Savings of the Migrant Population: Based on the China Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey Data in 2016

本文利用2016年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,应用内生转换模型,考察了二孩政策背景下教育、住房等因素对储蓄的影响及变化规律,实证结果表明,不论是一孩家庭还是二孩家庭,为了购房、预期的子女抚养、子女结婚等原因都有增加储蓄的倾向,而且二孩家庭储蓄意愿更强。但是现实中由于赡养老人、较高的流动人口生活成本、偿还购房贷款等因素降低了储蓄,而且二孩家庭的储蓄下降得更多。也就是说二孩家庭有更强的储蓄意愿,但是反而有更低的储蓄率。最后本文从加强流动人口的社会保障、降低流动人口子女的教育成本的角度提出了对策建议。

This paper uses the data of the China Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey Data in 2016 and applies the endogenous conversion model to examine the impact and changes of education,housing and other factors on savings in the context of the two-child policy.For reasons such as house purchase,expected child support,and child marriage,there is a tendency to increase savings,and the two-child families have a stronger willingness to save.However,in reality,due to factors such as supporting the elderly,higher living costs of the migrant population,and repayment of home purchase loans,savings have been reduced,and the savings of two-child families have fallen even more.In other words,the two-child family has a stronger saving will,but instead has a lower saving rate.Finally,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of strengthening the social security of the migrant population and reducing the educational cost of the children of the migrant population.