中国去产能政策的就业效应研究

A Study on Employment Effect of China’s De-capacity Policy

供给侧结构性改革是中央根据国家经济转型发展情况提出的新政,而作为供给侧结构性改革重要任务之一的去产能思想和实践早已有之。本文以中央政府工作报告和"五年规划(计划)"纲要为主,梳理去产能政策并归纳界定历年去产能政策影响的重点行业。在此基础上,将去产能政策的重点行业和中国家庭收入调查数据(CHIP2013)进行匹配,基于劳动经济学的视角,从劳动者个体微观层面出发,运用Logit回归等实证分析方法,剖析去产能政策对不同行业内劳动者的工作变动、就业结构转换和失业等方面的影响。研究表明,去产能重点行业内的劳动者在进行工作转换时更多地流出到采矿业、制造业与建筑业等去产能重点行业以外的行业,同时,去产能重点行业内的劳动者相比其他行业劳动者在结束第一份工作时更多地转为失业状态。通过对历年去产能政策重点行业内劳动者就业状况的实证研究,为去产能政策对劳动力市场的影响提供新的视角和证据,也可以为供给侧结构性改革未来的更好实施提供借鉴指导。

The supply-side structural reform is a new policy proposed by the central government based on the country’s economic transformation and development,but the idea and practice of de-capacity as one of the important tasks of the supply-side structural reform have already existed.Based on the policy documents of central government work reports and the five-year plan over the years,this paper reviewes the evolution of de-capacity policy and defines the key industries involved in the policy over the years.On this basis,the key industries of the de-capacity policy are matched with the data from Chinese Household Income Project(CHIP2013)according to the industrial distribution.From the perspective of labor economics,starting from the micro-level of individual workers,this paper uses logit regression model to analyze the impact of the policy on the employment of workers in different industries in terms of job changes,employment structure transformation and unemployment.The results showed that workers in those key industries of de-capacity policy,such as mining,manufacturing,and construction,would more likely to flow out to those non-key industries.At the same time,workers in key industries,were more likely to become unemployed than workers in other industries when they ended their first job.Through empirical research on the employment status of workers in key industries of de-capacity policies over the years,it provides a new perspective and evidence for the impact of the de-capacity policy on the labor market,and can also provide reference for better implementation of supply-side structural reform in the future.