番薯引入对明清人口的影响

The Impact of Sweet Potato Introduction on Population in Ming and Qing Dynasties

明朝时期,番薯、玉米、马铃薯等美洲粮食作物开始引入中国,其中番薯由于其独特的高产、易种植等优势在我国得到广泛传播,至清朝末年已成为主要粮食作物之一。番薯的引入对明清社会的发展尤其是人口的增长做出了重要贡献。本文通过对17个省份地方志的整理以及对其他史料的搜集,获取我国各省番薯引入时间、种植情况、土地适宜性以及人口等相关数据,运用双重差分(DID)方法,在控制玉米引入时间、战争、灾害、传染病等重要协变量基础上,定量研究番薯引入对明清时期人口增长的影响。结果表明,番薯的引入对人口的增长具有显著的正向促进作用,且番薯对南方人口的增长作用远远大于北方。

Ming dynasty saw the introduction of sweet potato,corn,potato and other American food crops into China,among which sweet potato was widely spread in China due to its advantages of high yield and easy cultivation and had become one of the staple crops in the late Qing dynasty.The introduction of sweet potato made an important contribution to the development of Ming and Qing dynasties,especially the growth of population.This research collected data about the the time of introducing sweet potatoes into each province,planting situation,land suitability and the relevant data such as population from chronicles of 17 provinces and other historical data.Then the method of difference-in-difference(DID)was applied to conduct a quantitative study on the impact of sweet potatoes on population growth in the Ming and Qing dynasties under the control of important covariates including the time of introducing corn,war,disaster,infectious diseases.The results showed that the introduction of sweet potato had a significant positive effect on the growth of population,and this effect in the south was much greater than that in the north.