疫情冲击叠加,启动危机应对模式是当务之急——2020年一季度宏观经济形势分析

Starting Crisis Response Mode as Top Priority Facing the Superposition of Epidemic Impact——2020 Quarter 1 Macro Economy Analysis Report

结合一季度宏观经济数据,课题组对制造业运行、消费、投资、价格、就业、财政金融运行等情况进行分析。认为疫情第一阶段冲击的宏微观影响仍在延续,疫情第二阶段冲击的短期及中长期影响不容忽视。疫情一、二阶段的冲击叠加,使我国经济增长社会稳定承受巨大压力。应对疫情冲击影响,需启动危机应对模式。危机应对模式的思路,除了政策对冲疫情影响之外,还需要开展救助。首先是对中小企业、家庭和个人的直接救援。第二是针对疫情条件下的新生需求精准发力,实现间接救援。第三是救援措施与改革政策相结合,改善预期。

The research group combines first-quarter data to analyse the operation of manufacturing industry,consumption,investment,price,employment,fiscal finance operation,etc.,It is concluded that the macro and micro impacts of the first phase of the epidemic are still continuing,and the short,medium and long-term impacts of the second phase of the epidemic cannot be ignored.The impact of the first and second phases of the epidemic superposed great pressure on China's economic growth and social stability.To deal with the impact of epidemic situation,the crisis response mode should be activated.The thinking behind the crisis response model is that,in addition to policy responses to the impact of the epidemic,rescue is needed.The first is direct assistance to small and medium-sized enterprises,families and individuals.The second is to make precise efforts to the emerging demand under epidemic situation,so as to achieve indirect rescue.The third is the combination of rescue measures and reform policies to improve expectations.