防御超标准洪水需有全局思考

Overall consideration needs to be paid on prevention of exceed standard floods

在经济社会发展新形势下,认清超标洪水及洪水风险的演变特征,增强超标洪水的预判、防范与应急处置能力,对于提高超标洪水防御预案的针对性与可操作性,是至关重要的基础问题。分析了影响江河湖库设防标准的动态变化因素和形成超标洪水的不确定性因素,总结了城市化进程加快和城市人口增加背景下我国洪灾风险的演变特征与趋向,提出超标洪水防御预案编制需牢固树立全局观,从风险辨识、工程安全与潜力评价、洪水监测预报与预警发布、优化调度、应急联动等各个环节做好调研,使预案对防汛工作起到切实的指导作用。

Along with economic and social development,to understand the features of exceed standard floods and evolution of associated risks are vital so that the capability to predict,prevent and response these extreme events can be upgraded.The basis is to improve the pertinence and feasibility of the plan.According to analysis of factors related to dynamic changes that influence the formation of flood control standards of rivers,lakes and reservoirs,as well as uncertain factors that cause exceed standard floods,the paper summarizes the features of evolution and trend of flood risk in China,under the background of fast urbanization and increase of urban population.It is proposed to take full consideration in the preparation of flood prevention plan,including risk identification,engineering safety and potential evaluation,flood monitoring,forecasting and early warning.Investigation and researches need to carry out in all aspects of optimizing dispatching and emergency response,so as to make targeted and feasible plans that can be used as practical guidance for flood control.