财政承受能力规制与PPP财政支出责任变化研究

The Regulation of Fiscal Affordability and the Change of Fiscal Expenditure Responsibility in PPP

为了防范潜在财政风险、规范PPP模式的发展,政府制定并实施财政承受能力制度。本文以我国2013—2022年交通运输业PPP项目为样本,采用数据包络模型构造投入的子向量距离函数,评价财政承受能力规制(以下简称“财承规制”)的制度效应,并对财政支出责任变化进行全面分解,探寻财政支出责任变化的影响因素。研究发现,受到财政承受能力制度效应的影响,潜在财政支出责任减少,全要素生产率、投入替代效应和财政风险效应降低了实际财政支出责任,产出结构效应和PPP规模效应提高了实际财政支出责任,东部、中部、西部地区投入要素对PPP实际财政支出责任变化的影响存在显著差异,技术效率不足导致实际财政支出责任高于潜在财政支出责任。非参数检验结果显示,社会资本、财政风险效应和PPP规模对不同时期的实际财政支出责任均具有显著影响。本文对地方政府响应财政承受能力规制、寻求降低财政支出责任途径、缩小PPP地区间发展差距具有现实意义。

In order to guard against the potential fisical risks and regulate the development of PPP model,the government has formulated and implemented the fiscal affordability system.This paper takes the PPP projects of China's transportation industry from 2013 to 2022 as samples,adopts the DEA model to construct the sub-vector distance function of input,evaluates the institutional effect of fiscal affordability regulation,and comprehensively decomposes the change of fiscal expenditure responsibility to explore the influencing factors of the change.Studies have found that affected by the fiscal affordability system,potential fiscal expenditure responsibility has reduced.Total factor productivity,input substitution effect and financial risk effect reduce,while the output structure effect and the PPP scale effect are increasing the actual fiscal expenditure responsibility.There are significant differences in the impact of input factors on the change of actual PPP fiscal expenditure responsibility in the eastern,western and central regions.The lack of technical efficiency causes the actual fiscal expenditure responsibility to be higher than the potential responsibility.The results of the non-reference test show that social capital,the financial risk effect and the PPP scale have significant influence on the actual fiscal expenditure responsibility in different periods.This paper has practical significance for local governments to respond to the regulation of fiscal affordability,seek ways to reduce fiscal expenditure responsibility and narrow the PPP development gap between different regions.