国际航线、贸易产品结构与中国对外贸易的增长

International Air Routes,Product Mix and the Growth of China's Foreign Trade

空运贸易作为一种昂贵但快捷的运输方式,其发展势必会对中国对外贸易产生重要的影响。本文基于中国各城市与世界各国的国际航线数据,以及中国海关数据,发现2000—2013年中国的航空运输不断发展壮大,以机械为代表的中高级产品是我国空运出口增长的主要组成部分。通过中国各省份与各国双边贸易额的实证分析还发现,开通国际航班能够显著地增加我国各省份出口和进口贸易总额,并且能够显著地促进对外贸易顺差的增长。稳定开通一条国际航线平均能够带来10.09亿~11.11亿美元的出口增长,以及3.93亿~4.77亿美元的进口增长,贸易产品结构的差异能对航线的出口和进口促进产生正向的调节效应。这些结论在区分不同的航线开通指标、不同的运输距离的分组分析中都显著一致。本文的研究结果能为准确评估航线的经济收益、发展临空产业经济提供有力的参考借鉴。

Trade by air transport-an expensive but fast mode of transportation-is bound to have an important impact on China's foreign trade.Based on the data of international air routes connecting China and other countries,and Chinese Customs data,this paper finds that from 2000 to 2013,China's air transport grew steadily,and the medium and advanced products such as machinery were the main contributors to the growth in export by air.Based on the empirical analysis of the bilateral trade volume between China's provincial regions and their trade partners,we find that the opening of international flights can significantly increase the exports and imports,and trade surplus.Stable operation of an international route can increase exports by 1.009~1.111 billion US dollars and imports by 0.393~0.477 billion US dollars on average.The difference among the product mix has positive moderating effects on the export and import promotion of the international air route.These conclusions are consistent with those obtained from group analysis of different industries,different route indicators and different transportation distances.These findings can provide a powerful reference for the accurate evaluation of the economic benefits of air routes and the development of the airport industry.