中国人口发展战略研究中的分歧与演进

Divergence and Evolution of the Study of China’s Population Strategy

长远人口发展战略决定着不同阶段的具体人口决策,并将对未来人口进程产生重大影响。本文回顾和梳理了以往40年关于生育政策方面的争论,发现这些争论实质上反映了对中国人口发展战略的长期目标及达成手段所存在的重大分歧。进入低生育时期之后,不同人口战略目标之争还在继续,仍是不同形势判断和政策主张分歧的深层原因。近年来生育政策虽已经重大调整,但由于人口战略目标一直并未明确,因此相应的政策争论依旧不断。尽早明确中国人口发展的战略目标事关长远,意义重大,国家和社会公众应该对此保持足够的警醒,而人口发展战略研究对此更是不能回避。

The long-term population strategy determines the specific population decision-making at different stages and will have a significant bearing on future population evolution.This article reviews and summarizes debates on China’s fertility policies in the past 40 years,and finds that those debates actually reflect major differences over the long-term goal and means of achieving China’s population strategy.After entering the low fertility stage,the debate on different long-term population goals continues,which is still the in-depth cause of the different scenario judgments and policy propositions.In recent years,although the fertility policy has undergone major adjustments,China is yet to clarify its strategic population goal and,as a result,relevant policy debates are still going on.It is of crucial significance for China to clarify its strategic population goal as soon as possible.The State and the public should keep alert in that regard and it should not be shunned in the study of population strategy.