经济复杂环境下货币政策调控与优化思考

Study on the Regulation and Optimization of Monetary Policy in the Complex Economic Environment

货币政策根据经济环境变化适时调整方能保障调控有效,为此必须清楚把握经济运行脉络。本文基于长、中、短期的阶段性视角进行剖析,发现当前经济复杂环境的形成源于长、中、短期不同因素的叠加。其中,世界经济周期下行拖拽引发国内经济增速降档、对外贸易顺差趋势性缩减造成有效需求重心内移、疫情冲击经济活动短暂停滞增添不确定性风险,共同造就我国面临经济复杂环境。为此,围绕调控目标、调控职能、调控模式、调控工具探讨货币政策调控框架的应对之策,以促成货币政策发挥总量管理下的结构精准作用,引导资金流入实体经济薄弱环节,维护流动性合理充裕。在此基础上从预期引导管理、财政政策协同、宏观审慎配合三个维度提出货币政策的优化路径,以提高对宏观经济的调控效力。

Only when monetary policy is adjusted in time according to the changes of economic environment, can the regulation be effective. Therefore, it is necessary to clearly grasp the context of economic operation. Based on the analysis of the long,medium and short-term stages, this paper finds that the formation of the current economic complex environment originates from the superposition of the long, medium and short-term different factors. Among them, the downward drag of the world economic cycle has led to the downshift of domestic economic growth, the trend reduction of foreign trade surplus, resulting in the shift of the effective demand center, the impact of the epidemic on the short-term stagnation of economic activities and increases the risk of uncertainty, which together create a complex economic environment for China. In order to make monetary policy play a precise role in the total amount management and guide capital flow into the weak links of the real economy to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, this paper discusses the countermeasures of monetary policy regulatory framework around regulatory objectives, regulatory functions, regulatory models and regulatory tools. On this basis, the paper puts forward the optimization path of monetary policy from three dimensions of expected guidance management, fiscal policy coordination and macro prudential coordination, so as to improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation and control.