中国光伏组件报废量的预测

RESEARCH ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES WASTE PREDICTION IN CHINA

在采用威布尔分布模型分析光伏组件使用寿命分布情况的基础上,使用神经网络模型和市场供给A模型分别对中国光伏装机容量和组件报废量进行预测。将光伏组件按照不同质量分成2阶段,考虑不同退化情景预测组件报废量,并计算组件中有价值材料和金属报废量。预测结果表明:2025年后中国光伏组件报废量爆发,到2050年,中国光伏组件报废量最高可达60.22 GW,累计报废最高可达673 GW。在4种退化情景下,到2050年,典型贵金属方面最高产生3134.5 t的Ag;稀有金属方面最高产生228.1 t的Te;463.4 t的Cd,58.5 t的Ga,29.8 t的In;有毒有害金属方面最高产生263.9 t的Pb;Si最高产生量43735.4 t。到2050年,光伏组件材料累积废弃总量最高可达64623193.6 t。

This study used the Weibull distribution model to analyze China′s photovoltaics.Then the neural network model and the market supply A model were used to predict the installed capacity of PV and the amount of modules waste in China.In this paper,we divided PV modules into two phases according to different quality,and considered the four degradation scenarios to predict component scrap.Then we calculated the valuable materials and metal scrap in the components.The results showed that China′s PV module will scrap out after 2025.In 2050,China′s PV module will scrap up to 60.22 GW,and the accumulative quantity up to 673 GW.In four degradation scenariost,by 2050,typical precious metals will produce up to 3134.5 tons of Ag;the highest yield of rare metals will include 228.1 tons of Te,463.4 tons of Cd,58.5 tons of Ga,29.8 tons of In;for toxic and harmful metals,263.9 tons of Pb will be produced;and a maximum of 43735.4 tons of Si will be produce.By 2050,the cumulative total waste of PV module materials will reach the peak of 64423193.6 tons.