基于GIS技术与LUR模型的福州市核心区污染物时空动态及其影响因素

Spatial dynamics and influencing factors of pollutants in core area of Fuzhou City,China by using GIS and LUR model

基于ArcGIS平台,采用土地利用回归(land-use regression,LUR)模型模拟福州市城市核心区大气污染物浓度分布,从福州市国家空气质量监控站获取大气污染物数据,结合道路交通数据、土地利用数据、人口数据、工业污染源数据和气象数据建立LUR模型,并利用模型进行回归映射.在监测点建立多种尺度的缓冲区,提取变量数据,最终生成了28个变量.回归模型中R^2最小值为0.784,最大值高达0.998,模型总体拟合程度较好.回归映射结果显示,污染物高浓度区主要集中于鼓楼区和台江区.

To provide scientific basis for the prevention of air pollution in Fuzhou City,the distribution of air pollutants in the core area of Fuzhou was visualized using land use regression model(LUR)on ArcGIS.CO-LUR and NOx-LUR models were constructed based on information on roads and traffic,land use,population,industrial pollution and meteorological condition,then were validated by regression mapping.Multi-scale buffer zones were further built at the monitoring points,with 28 variables being extracted.The results showed that the fitting degrees of the regression models were relatively satisfactory,ranging between 0.784 and 0.998.The validation test revealed that pollutants mainly concentrated in Gulou district and Taijiang district.