中国制造业碳排放演变的驱动效应与“十四五”趋势研判

Driving Effects of Carbon Emissions Evolution in Chinese Manufacturing Industry and the Trend during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

制造业是我国能源消耗最大、碳排放最突出的产业部门。本文应用LMDI分解法对中国制造业CO2排放演变进行驱动分解,并应用情景分析法分析“十四五”时期中国制造业CO2排放趋势。研究结果表明:1995-2016年中国制造业CO2排放整体呈增长趋势,2015-2016年制造业CO2排放出现了明显的下降;黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、非金属矿物制品业、化学原料和化学品制造业、石油煤炭和其他燃料加工业是“十四五”时期制造业调控的“重”中之重;投资规模效应和能源结构效应对中国制造业CO2排放一直表现为增量效应,投资效率效应和能源强度效应是抑制制造业CO2排放的减量效应,产业结构效应的驱动作用和抑制作用交替出现,投资规模效应对中国制造业CO2排放起到最主要的驱动作用;不同制造业部门CO2排放变化的驱动效应存在明显差异;创新情景是“十四五”时期中国制造业CO2减排的最优情景。本研究为我国实现从制造大国向制造强国迈进、推动“十四五”时期制造业高质量发展提供科学参考。

Manufacturing industry is the industrial sector with the largest energy consumption and the most promi⁃nent carbon emissions in China.Using LMDI method to decompose the driving effects of Chinese manufacturing in⁃dustry CO2 emissions,and the application of scenario analysis to analyze the 14th Five-Year Plan period develop⁃ment trend of Chinese manufacturing industry carbon emissions.The results show that Chinese manufacturing CO2 emissions overall showed an increasing trend in 1995-2016,and manufacturing CO2 emissions in 2015-2016 showed a significant decline.Ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry,non-metallic mineral products industry,chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing industry,petroleum and other fuel processing industry are the top priorities of manufacturing control during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The investment scale effect and energy structure effect have always been positive driving effects on Chinese manufacturing CO2 emissions,the in⁃vestment efficiency effect and energy intensity effect are the main effects to restrain the CO2 emissions of manufactur⁃ing industry,both the driving and restraining effects of industrial structure effect appear alternately,and the invest⁃ment scale effect plays the most important driving role on the CO2 emissions of Chinese manufacturing industry.There are obvious differences in the driving effects of CO2 emission changes in different manufacturing sectors.Inno⁃vation scenario is the best scenario and the CO2 lowest emissions for Chinese manufacturing industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.It provides scientific reference for the transition from a big manufacturing country to a power manufacturing country and the high quality development of manufacturing industry in the 14th Five-Year Plan peri⁃od.