中美高技术制造业双边贸易分解及潜力分析

Study on Decomposition and Potential of Sino-US Bilateral Trade in High-tech Industries

本文利用最新版WIOT数据、WWZ模型以及扩展引力模型对中美高技术制造业双边贸易进行了分解和潜力分析。结果表明:(1)中美高技术制造业贸易具有较强的互补性,且美国高技术制造业贸易越来越依赖于中国市场。(2)中国高技术制造业出口获益能力低于美国,其中中国高技术制造业出口主要用于最终需求,而美国高技术制造业出口主要用于中间投入。(3)相对美国,中国高技术制造业出口中隐含着大量国外价值,且位于全球价值链相对下游位置。(4)中国高技术制造业参与全球价值链较少环节,而美国高技术制造业占据全球价值链较多环节。(5)中美高技术制造业的国际生产分工程度均高于国内生产分工。(6)中美高技术制造业双边贸易仍存在较大的潜力,具有进一步合作发展空间。然而,新冠肺炎疫情严重影响了双边贸易合作潜力的进一步释放。

Based on World Input-Output Database(WIOD),WWZ model and Gravity model,the article decomposes the Sino-US bilateral trade in High-tech industries during 2000-2014 and analyzes its potential.Our studies indicate the following:(1)Sino-US bilateral trade in high-tech industries has strong complementarities,and US high-tech industries trade is increasingly dependent on the China market.(2)The profit ability of China′s High-tech industries is relatively lower than USA′s.Exports of China′s High-tech industries are mainly used for final demands,while exports of USA′s High-tech industries are mainly used for intermediate inputs.(3)Large share of foreign value-added(FVA)in exports of China′s High-tech industries indicates that exports contain a lot of foreign value,and China′s High-tech industries is in the downstream of global value chains(GVC).(4)The GVC of China′s High-tech industries are shorter than USA′s.(5)The degrees of international productive specialization are higher than domestic productive specialization.(6)The bilateral trade in High-tech industries between China and USA still has larger potential.However,COVID-19 seriously affects the further release of Sino-US bilateral trade cooperation potential.