延迟退休、劳动人口负担与主观福利

Delaying Retirement , the Burden of Working Population, Subjective Wellbeing

在当前给付确定的养老制度下,构建一个动态优化模型,模拟延迟退休方案对劳动人口福利的影响效应。研究发现:相比不延迟退休,推迟法定退休年龄政策不仅没有挤占当前和未来的劳动人口福利,相反改善了劳动人口福利,并且这个结果对于参数和养老制度的改变是稳健的,而其中的机制是,延迟退休通过提高未来的人均产出和降低单个劳动人口的抚养和赡养负担,进而提高劳动人口福利水平。为应对60后婴儿潮促发的养老潮,宜尽快出台延迟退休方案,但是为保障未来延迟退休方案不降低劳动人口福利,要适当控制生育成本和养老金替代率的上升幅度。

Based on realistic parameters,the simulation finds that delayed retirement not only does not crowd the welfare of the working population,but instead improves the welfare of the working population,and this result is stable for the changes in the parameters and the pension system,and the mechanism is that the delay in retirement increases the per capita output and reduces the burden on the working population.In turn,the welfare level of the working population will be improved.The policy inspiration of the article is to publicize and convey this fact to the public,and to provide a delayed retirement plan as soon as possible in response to the post-60 baby boom.However,it is appropriate to control the rise in fertility costs and pension replacement rates,which can ensure the future delayed retirement plan will not reduce the welfare of the working population.