时间偏好与货币需求函数稳定性的结构研究

Time Preference and Structure Research on the Stability of Money Demand Function

本文基于时间偏好,对货币需求进行结构划分,将M2划分为即期需求和远期需求,定义真实货币需求和真实货币供给,分析货币需求的影响因素并利用VECM模型构建了相对稳定的货币需求函数。研究发现以M2总量衡量的货币需求函数不稳定,正是因为忽略了货币的时间性,导致忽视了货币需求的结构变化。对M2进行时间性划分后,经济含义更加明确,需求函数的稳定性增强。

This paper divides monetary demand structure based on the time preference.M2 could be divided into sight demand and long-term demand,which are respectively defined as real money demand and real money supply.According to this analysis system,this paper then analyzes the influence factors of money demand and uses VECM model to build a relatively stable currency demand function.The study found that the money demand function measured by M2 is not stable because it ignores the time preference,leading to the structural changes of the currency demand.After dividing M2 into two parts,the economic meaning is more obvious,and the stability of the demand function is enhanced.