网络借贷行业风险与投资者信心——基于百度搜索指数的研究

Risks and Investor Confidence in Online Lending Industry Based on Baidu Search Index

近年来,网络借贷行业风险事件频发,极大地影响了投资者的信心。选取2015—2019年176家P2P平台运营数据和百度搜索指数,实证检验了网络借贷行业风险对投资者信心的影响,结果表明:网络借贷行业风险对网贷投资者信心具有显著的抑制效应。随着网络借贷行业风险指数的提升,网贷投资者所要求获得的风险补偿价格越来越高。风险感知是网络借贷行业风险影响网贷投资者信心的重要途径。同时,对于以资金存管、ICP备案、风险纾缓机制等为代表的风控治理越规范的网贷平台,网贷投资者的投资信心越足,索取的“风险补偿”价格越低。研究结论表明,监管机构应不断完善P2P行业的信息披露制度,规范平台合规发展,建立网络借贷舆情预警机制,引导投资者建立理性的风险感知,化解极端风险。

In recent years,the frequent incidents concerning the risks in the online lending industry have adversely impacted the investor confidence and behavior.Based on the operation data of 176 P2P platforms during the years from 2015 to 2019 and Baidu Search Index,this paper empirically tests the impact of risks in the online lending industry on the investor confidence.The empirical results show that the risks in the online lending industry has a significant inhibiting effect on the investor confidence in the online lending.With the increase of risk index in online lending industry,the“risk compensation”demanded by online lending investors is higher and higher.Among them,the risk perception by online loan investors is an important way to investor confidence in online lending.At the same time,the online lending investors have more confidence in the online lending platforms with more standardized risk control and governance,such as fund depository management,ICP registration,risk mitigation mechanism,etc.and they demand much lower“risk compensation”.The research results indicate that the regulatory authorities should consummate the system of information disclosure in P2P industry,require the industrial compliance development in a normative way,establish the early warning mechanism in public opinion on online lending,and guide the investors to establish the rational risk perception and resolve the extreme risks.