基于Logistic模型的陕西省城镇化演进对耕地影响的前景预测及分析

Forecast and Analysis of the Impact of Urbanization Evolution on Cultivated Land in Shaanxi Province Based on Logistic Model

采用Logistic模型和SPSS软件,依据陕西省1990—2017年耕地面积、城镇化水平、GDP总量、人均GDP、第三产业占GDP比重等数据,对陕西省城镇化演进对其耕地的影响进行分析,并运用STRIPAT模型从定量分析角度预测陕西省城镇化发展趋势对其耕地面积的影响,得出结论:2021年、2022年陕西省城镇化率将分别达到64.76%和66.42%;陕西省人口数量、富裕程度、城镇化水平、技术水平对耕地面积变化影响的弹性系数依次为-0.04455、-0.04293、-0.04329、-0.024795;陕西省2018年至2022年,耕地统计面积将减少7.988千公顷。针对此研究结果,有关管理部门需要采取有效应对政策。

Based on Logistic model,this paper analyses the impact of urbanization evolution on cultivated land in Shaanxi Province.SPSS software is used to analyze the cultivated land area,urbanization level,total GDP,per capita GDP and the proportion of tertiary industry to GDP in Shaanxi Province from 1990 to 2017.Secondly,STRIPAT model is used to predict the impact of urbanization development trend on cultivated land area in Shaanxi Province from the perspective of quantitative analysis.The conclusions are as follows:the urbanization rate of Shaanxi Province is 64.76%in 2021 and 66.42%in 2022;the elasticity coefficient of the influence of population,wealth,urbanization level and technology level on the change of cultivated land area in Shaanxi Province is-0.04455,-0.04293,-0.04329,-0.024795 in turn;the cultivated land area of Shaanxi Province is predicted to decrease from 2018 to 2022.7.988 thousand hectares less.Finally,according to the results of the study,we put forward effective policy recommendations.