企业家信心、货币政策与宏观经济时变效应

Entrepreneur confidence,monetary policy and macroeconomic time-varying effects

运用2000年第一季度至2019年第一季度数据,利用时变参数模型(TVP-SV-VAR)研究基于企业家信心预期条件下的货币政策对中国宏观经济的影响。结果表明:企业家信心增强,短期内能够刺激经济增长以及推动通货膨胀指数上升,但长期效应相对较弱;随着中国经济发展进入新常态,数量型货币政策对中国宏观经济的调控作用逐渐衰减,而价格型货币政策对中国宏观经济的调控作用逐渐增强。货币当局在制定货币政策时应当充分考虑企业家信心的预期效应,进而平稳企业投资,推动经济持续增长。

This paper focuses on the impacts of expected-entrepreneur-confidence-based monetary policies on the national macroeconomy.Using the time-varying parameter model(TVP-SV-VAR),it makes an analysis of the quarter data from January 2000 to January 2019.It turns out that a greater entrepreneur confidence would stimulate the economic growth and create an increase of inflation index in a short term.As the Chinese economy steps into a new normal,the quantitative monetary policies gradually play a less important role in adjusting the macro economy,whereas price-based monetary policies become more and more important.Therefore,it is suggested that the government should take into account the effect of entrepreneur confidence expectation when making monetary policies,and thus to stabilize the business investment and promote a continual economic growth.