摘要
信息化弹药是现代作战中重要的精确杀伤武器,为了提高打击效率、降低费用代价,需要精确预计消耗量。针对信息化弹药毁伤概率高、受多种战场环境影响等特点,提出了基于能力的预计方法。该方法运用模糊逻辑理论对多种因素进行综合定量分析,根据弹药命中概率和目标类别获得目标-弹药匹配组合,并使用弹药费用和保障费用对匹配组合进行最低费用代价排序,通过目标价值和数量预计弹药消耗量。结合实例进行的仿真计算结果表明,该方法能有效预计信息化弹药消耗量。
Information ammunition is an important precision weapon in modern warfare.In order to improve efficiency and reduce cost,it is necessary to accurately predict consumption.Aiming at the characteristics of information ammunition,such as high damage probability and being influenced by many battlefield environments,a capability-based prediction method is proposed.Firstly,the method uses the fuzzy theory logic to synthetically and quantitatively analyze various factors,then obtains the target-ammunition matching combination according to the hit probability and target category of ammunition,and uses the ammunition cost and guarantee cost to rank the lowest cost of matching combination.Finally,the ammunition consumption is predicted by the target value and quantity.The simulation results of a specific case show that the method can effectively predict the consumption of information ammunition.
作者
李建华
于洪敏
张明亮
黄韬
LI Jian-hua;YU Hong-min;ZHANG Ming-liang;HUANG Tao(Joint Service College,National Defense University,Beijing 100858,China)
出处
《火力与指挥控制》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第6期96-100,107,共6页
Fire Control & Command Control
基金
军队科研计划基金资助项目。
关键词
信息化弹药
基于能力
模糊逻辑
消耗预计
information ammunition
Level-of-Effort(LOE)
fuzzy logic theory
consumption forecast