资料不充分地区的洪水保险研究

Study on flood insurance in areas with insufficient data

洪水保险是利用投保人缴纳并累积的保险费用去补偿洪水灾害造成的损失的一种洪水风险分散机制。我国现已全面完成的洪水风险图试点工作为洪水保险研究提供了基础,为缺乏历年洪灾损失资料的地区提供了特定频率洪灾损失。针对这种资料不充分地区,提出了基于特定频率洪水的经济损失通过规划求解工具比选其最优分布类型,推求洪水保险费率与保费的方法。该方法可作为我国洪水风险图推广应用的范例,将其推广使用到各保护区与蓄滞洪区。以大黄堡洼蓄滞洪区为例,通过误差分析确定大黄堡洼蓄滞洪区洪灾损失更符合皮尔逊Ⅲ型曲线。按不同财产类型厘定洪水保险费率,居民财产、农业、工业与商业分别为5.109%、9.020%、6.109%、5.459%,所需缴纳保费分别为766元、2706元、5498元、4914元。

Flood insurance is a kind of flood risk dispersion mechanism,which uses the insurance premium paid and accumulated by the insured to compensate the losses caused by flood disasters.The pilot work of flood risk map in China has been completed comprehensively,which provides the foundation for flood insurance research and provides specific frequency flood losses for the areas lacking historical flood loss data.Aiming at this kind of area with insufficient data,a method of calculating flood premium rate and insurance premium is proposed by comparing the optimal distribution type of specific frequency flood economic losses with the programming solver tool.This method can be used as an example of the popularization and application of flood risk maps in China and it can be extended to various protected areas and flood detention areas.Taking the Dahuangpuwa flood detention area as an example,through the error analysis to determine that flood loss in Dahuangpuwa flood detention area is more in line with the Pearson-Ⅲcurve.The flood insurance premium rate was determined according to different types of property,the premium rates for residential property,agriculture,industry and commerce are 5.109%,9.020%,6.109%and 5.459%,respectively.And the insurance premiums required are￥766,￥2,706,￥5,498 and￥4,914,respectively.