城乡、性别差异下一孩家庭二孩生育意愿的比较研究

A Comparative Study on Fertility Intentions of Families with One Child to Have a Second Child Based on the Difference of Region and Gender

二孩生育意愿作为了解生育二孩行为的重要指标,受到多种因素的影响,其复杂性导致已有研究结论的差异甚至冲突。使用广东省一个地级市的调查数据,开展定性比较分析(QCA)。对二孩生育高意愿的产生路径进行比较,发现四组人群存在明显差别,城市女性出现高生育意愿的比例显著低于另外三类人群;受教育水平和收入水平与二孩生育意愿之间并非简单的线性关系,在不同组合下将产生不同的结果;“有老人帮助”是绝大部分人群生育二孩的核心条件,幼儿照护的压力不容忽视;“理想子女数量”是四组人群高生育意愿的必要条件,凸显生育意愿的内生性。

As an important indicator to understand the behavior of having a second child,the willingness to have a second child is affected by multiple factors,and its complexity leads to differences and even conflicts in existing research conclusions.A qualitative comparative analysis(QCA)is made by using survey data from a prefecture-level city in Guangdong Province.Through the comparative analysis on the paths of high fertility intention of a second child,there are obvious differences among the four groups:the proportion of urban women with high fertility intention is significantly lower than other three groups;there is not a simple linear relationship between education level and income level and intentions to have a second child,which will produce different results under different combinations;"assistance from the elderly"is a core condition for the majority of people because the pressure of child care cannot be ignored;the ideal number of children is a necessary condition for the four groups to have high fertility intention,which highlights the endogeneity of fertility intention.