公共卫生事件的长期经济影响评估--基于2003年SARS事件的分析

An Evaluation of the Long-Term Economic Impact of Public Health Events--Evidence from the 2003 SARS Outbreak

以大型传染病为代表的公共卫生事件不仅在短期冲击总需求,还可能对宏观经济长期发展产生深远影响.本文基于2003年SARS全球性爆发这一公共卫生事件,使用1994-2016年中国地级市数据和Carvalhoetal.(2018)的人工反事实(Artificialcounterfactual,ArCo)方法,估计了我国三个主要城市——广州、北京、香港受卫生事件冲击的动态因果效应.本文发现,公共卫生事件对三市GDP增长有显著长期负面影响,对固定资产投资、居民消费、房地产投资、吸引外资、贸易的影响程度存在一定差异.本文从生产率(TFP)损失角度探究了外生事件对经济有长期负面影响的可能机制,并使用上海做进一步安慰剂检验.本文的发现表明公共卫生事件需引起高度重视,为避免生产率下降带来的长期经济损失,政策实施应重视降低资源错配,提高企业创新活力.

Public health events represented by the outbreaks of major infectious diseases can have short-run serious impact on the local economic development,while long-run ones are not rare either.Based on the event of the global outbreak of SARS in 2003,this paper assesses the dynamic.causal impact of this major infectious disease on three large cities in China,namely Guangzhou,Hong Kong and Beijing,by using the Artificial Counterfactual Framework of Carvalho et al.(2018)and the data of prefecturelevel Chinese cities from 1994 to 2016.It is found that this public health event has significant negative impact on their local economic development and that the impact varies with the growth components there,such as investment,consumption,property investment,FDI and trade.Attempts are made to explore the mechanism underlying the negative economic impact from the perspective of productivity,and to perform a placebo examination with Shanghai.The results show that,in order to avoid economic stagnation caused by the productivity loss,policy makers need to attach great importance to alleviating resource misallocation and innovation reduction.