高质量发展视域下收入标准的测度、 影响与合理性分析:兼论中等收入陷阱与中国的发展阶段

Research on Income Standard Classification and Measurement:Comments on the Middle-Income Trap and the Development Stage of China

中国推动经济高质量发展,需要制定符合自身收入阶段和禀赋结构比较优势的发展战略。收入标准是判定一国发展阶段、发展状态和增长动力的前提条件。本文以中等收入门槛为例,通过梳理文献和统计分析归纳收入标准的决定因素,进而定量分析不同收入标准对“中等收入陷阱”识别和动因的影响,最后探讨中国当前的发展中国家地位和中等收入转型难度。研究发现:收入门槛的界定依赖于收入分类法、数据来源和统计口径的不同组合,进而直接影响中等收入国家数目、“中等收入陷阱”及其成因的判断;使用不同的收入标准,中国目前都属于发展中国家,且跨越高收入门槛的难度和时间不同。不同收入标准适用于不同的经济增长问题,宜匹配恰当的收入分类法、数据来源和统计口径,不可随便混用。本文为与收入阶段相关的学术和政策研究提供了详细的分类依据和数据支撑。

Implementing the development strategy of endowment-driven comparative advantage is the shortcut to promote the high quality development in China.Income standard is the precondition to identify the development stage of a certain country.Starting from these definitions,this paper not only examines the direct effects of different income methods,income thresholds,data sources and statistical standards on the income stage,but also quantitatively analyzes their influence on the middle-income trap.Further discussed are the rationality of income standard in the study of China's development stage and the middle-income transition difficulty.It is found that the quantitative definition of income threshold depends on income classification,data sources and statistical caliber,which further affects the identification and causes of middle-income trap.Different income standards are suitable for different economic issues,but China remains a'developing country'whatever different income thresholds are used.The conclusion of this study provides support for theoretical and policy research in the area.