源于身份的隔阂:人口多样性、社会信任与犯罪

The Barriers of Identity:Population Diversity,Social Trust and Crime

本文以2014年中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)数据为基础,构建了一个人口多样性指数,并将其与288个城市的数据相匹配,检验了人口多样性与犯罪率之间的关系。实证结果表明,人口多样性是导致城市犯罪率上升的原因之一,且这一发现是稳健的。作用机制检验结果表明,社会信任是一个重要的中介变量,即人口多样性通过削弱社会信任水平导致犯罪率的上升。进一步,从地区制度环境和民生支出水平两个角度展开的实证检验发现,产权保护越完善、民众对法庭越有信心,政府在公共教育和社会保障上的财政支出越高,人口多样性对犯罪率的影响越弱,说明良好的制度和较高的社会福利支出具有显著的犯罪治理效应。本文的发现为城市化进程中我国各级政府的犯罪治理政策选择提供了经验证据,有助于科学把握犯罪治理的着力点。

Since the reform and opening-up,the urbanization process in China has been advancing continuously.It brings tremendous economic development as well as all sorts of so-called“urban disease”problems.Scholars have studied the relationship between the size of floating population and the crime rate,but few have paid attention to the increasingly prominent population diversity and its effect on crime.Based on the 2014 China Labor-force Dynamics Survey data,this paper has constructed a population diversity index to test its impact on crime rates.The results suggest that population diversity is one of the causes for the increase in urban crime.After considering the endogenous problem and testing the robustness from different perspectives,the conclusion remains unchanged.The results of mediate effect test indicate that social trust is an important intermediary variable,that is,population diversity leads to an increase of crime rate when the level of social trust is weak.Moreover,the results also show that the impact of population diversity on crime is much weaker when the property rights protection is more complete,people have more confidence in the court system and the government spend more in education and social security.It shows that better institutions can,to some extent,replace the role of non-market forces,thereby curbing the negative impact of population diversity on crime rates.It also suggests that public expenditure can reduce the likelihood of crime by increasing the opportunity cost of crime.In sum,this paper explores the possible adverse effects of the differences in cultural identity of different groups and finds that the institutional factors and public expenditure have significant impact on crime control,providing empirical evidences valuable to the government crime control policies in China.Governments at all levels should pay full attention to the adverse effects of cultural differences in governance and promote the mutual cultural recognition and integration of different groups.